Jasmine Paolini vs Ajla Tomljanovic Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Recent second serve success shows Paolini won 42.23% of points, slightly higher than Tomljanovic’s 39.3%. Does this give Paolini an edge? Possibly, given the correlation to match outcomes.
• In returning second serves, Tomljanovic outperforms Paolini, winning 51.51% of points compared to 47.89%. First serve returns are nearly even, with Tomljanovic slightly ahead at 34.47% versus Paolini’s 34.26%.
• Under pressure, Tomljanovic is strong, saving 54.35% of breakpoints, while Paolini saves 43.97%. This could be crucial during high-stakes points.
• Overall match success favors Paolini at 71.64% over the past year, compared to Tomljanovic’s 57.14% win rate. Could this overall consistency benefit Paolini?
• Surface preference differs significantly; Paolini excels on clay (64% win rate), while Tomljanovic performs best on grass (59%).
• The level of tournament competition is worth noting; Paolini has primarily competed in Masters series, with a win rate of 66.67%, while Tomljanovic has focused on the Main tour, achieving a 60.71% win rate. Consideration of event level impact is essential.
• When it comes to opponent quality, Paolini faced more challenging opposition with an average opponent rank of 51.13, compared to Tomljanovic’s 130.84.
• If this match ends in a deciding set, Tomljanovic is more reliable, winning 74% of such scenarios, outperforming Paolini’s 61%.
• Analyzing break point conversion, Tomljanovic has a slight edge, converting 42.26% of opportunities, while Paolini converts 37.91%.

Editorial Prediction (May 27, 2025, UTC):

As two competitive players face off, the detailed stats provide a narrative of strengths and weaknesses that could determine the match outcome. Paolini’s slight edge in second serve success could be crucial, although Tomljanovic's superior return game suggests a potential to counteract this advantage.

Pressure situations appear to favor Tomljanovic, who notably excels in saving breakpoints. Additionally, Tomljanovic’s ability to win in deciding sets demonstrates mental toughness that could carry significant weight as the match progresses.

While Paolini is more tested against higher-ranked opponents and boasts superior overall performance in the past year, Tomljanovic’s prowess on crucial points and ability to handle pressure effectively positions her as the likely winner in this matchup.